Nick Emmons

## Introduction 
We are thrilled to announce that Upshot will be the inaugural partner/ strategist for [Astaria](https://astaria.xyz/), a new on-chain NFT lending platform. Astaria’s protocol introduces an innovative three-actor-model where strategists, such as Upshot, can outline the terms of NFT loans through dedicated vaults. These vaults accept capital from liquidity providers, which is subsequently lent out to NFT borrowers, enhancing the transparency and efficacy of the NFT lending process. 

By bringing [Upshot’s industry-leading machine learning models](https://upshot.xyz/post/how-upshots-ml-models-work) to Astaria's lending platform, we unlock an innovative frontier in NFT financial markets, ensuring seamless and accessible lending practices. With a proven track record of appraising over 104 million NFTs from a diverse range of over 87,000 collections, our robust quantitative analyses offer unprecedented breadth and accuracy. As Astaria strategists, we employ our sophisticated recovery rate models and risk management framework, not only to gauge the probability of loan default but also to maintain a diversified loan portfolio, protecting both liquidity providers and ourselves from potential market volatility. This collaboration embodies our shared vision of propelling a new era of NFT financialization, where seemingly “illiquid” assets can be leveraged for a new wave of DeFi opportunities. 

## A Very Brief History of NFT Lending Today
Historically, the NFT lending market has primarily operated on a peer-to-peer basis, similar to archaic barter systems. In this model, borrowers and lenders agree on terms and a smart contract handles the transactions trustlessly. This process allows for great flexibility, matching terms on a case-by-case basis. However, the peer-to-peer model inherently requires both parties to reach an agreement on terms, a process often encumbered by a divergence in perceived values and risk factors. Borrowers, often emotionally attached to their NFTs, may overvalue them, while lenders, cautious about the borrower's credibility or the volatility of the collection, might assign a higher risk premium. This mismatch in sentiment often leads to less efficient market-clearing outcomes.

In response to these challenges, the peer-to-pool model has emerged as an alternative option to allow for a smoother user experience by removing the need for individual agreements. Lenders contribute to a pool which manages liquidity, allowing borrowers to access instant liquidity. Despite pooling risks for all liquidity providers, this model offers a more scalable path that closely mirrors the fungible market where LPs can deposit capital and earn. Peer-to-pool models depend heavily on accurate valuation methodologies to set loan terms. Over-reliance on oracle-based price calculation methods (such as floor price) can leave the system vulnerable to manipulation as well as limited in usefulness. 

The alternative to avoid oracle-based manipulation is to use specialized appraisers employing nuanced, machine-learning-based algorithms to estimate NFT value, incorporating factors such as traits, previous owner history, and other relevant data points. This takes us to Astaria's unique approach - the three-actor model.

## Introducing Astaria’s Three-Actor Model
[Astaria](https://astaria.xyz/) is an on-chain NFT lending platform designed with the native DeFi user in mind. The protocol provides a system for strategists, like Upshot, to publish loan NFT terms through vaults, which accepts capital from liquidity providers and extends it to borrowers. For example, one strategist may allow a 10 ETH loan with a 10% interest rate to be taken out against a specific NFT for one month. These terms can be continuously updated as markets fluctuate, and borrowers can refinance to take advantage of more favorable terms.

This unique, three-actor model fosters competitive yields for liquidity providers and instantaneous liquidity for borrowers, all while mitigating the need for traditional, time-consuming bid-and-ask negotiation processes. With a dynamic ecosystem of strategists, borrowers, and liquidity providers, Astaria ensures market competitive rates and flexibility for loan refinancing, without the fear of forced liquidations on price changes.

![Astaria-3-Actor-Model](//images.ctfassets.net/lhkcghnr8ql4/37dWByvTEQMljUMghW73ej/3cf966af4c8ee0d56bbbd10559818102/3AM-ccb5b9d756e22d102d2c5eeba160f03a.png)

Strategists, including Upshot, within Astaria's framework have the responsibility of deploying vaults complete with loan terms matched to supported NFTs. These terms can be dynamically adjusted as market conditions change, creating a lending ecosystem that's highly responsive to real-time fluctuations. All of this contributes to a healthy, competitive balance that ensures fair and accurate terms, striking a balance between attracting borrowers and securing sufficient capital.

### Core Benefits of Astaria 
Astaria has three core benefits for users: 1) instant liquidity, 2) competitive yields and loan terms, and 3) no forced liquidations. Here's a closer look at these benefits:

- __Instant liquidity__: This feature eliminates time-consuming bid-and-ask negotiations, allowing users immediate access to a variety of loan terms offered by expert strategists.
- __Competitive yields and loan terms__: Astaria fosters a competitive environment where strategists compete for capital, ensuring beneficial market rates for both liquidity providers and borrowers.
- __No forced liquidations__: Borrowers are only subject to liquidation if their loan expires with outstanding debt. This eliminates forced liquidations due to market price fluctuations, offering additional security for borrowers amidst market volatility.

#### Benefits for Borrowers 
For borrowers, the Astaria vault system presents a unique combination of flexibility, immediacy, and value. By holding their NFTs as collateral, borrowers gain immediate access to liquidity in an instant and permissionless protocol. This design enables NFT holders to unlock the financial potential of their assets immediately, without the hurdles often associated with traditional peer-to-peer systems. Even as the NFT is locked as collateral, borrowers can still tap into its utility. 

Astaria's FlashActions feature allows temporary unlocking of the NFT to perform predefined actions, such as collecting Uniswap fees or claiming airdrops, all while ensuring the NFT is returned within the same block. Additionally, Astaria enables borrowers to take multiple loans against the same NFT, up to five times, provided the maximum potential debt does not exceed the strategist-set limit. This multifaceted borrowing process, complete with the possibility of refinancing, offers borrowers an unprecedented level of freedom and control over their digital assets.

#### Benefits for Liquidity Providers 
On the other side of the coin, liquidity providers reap significant benefits from participating in Upshot’s vault on Astaria. When they contribute capital to PublicVaults, they receive yield-bearing ERC-4626 VaultTokens, thereby earning interest on their provided funds. This model presents an attractive proposition for liquidity providers, enabling them to earn from their capital while contributing to a DeFi ecosystem. The epoch-based operational system of PublicVaults also provides liquidity providers with a sense of stability, as withdrawals need to be signaled at least one epoch in advance.

### Loan Mechanics on Astaria 
Loan mechanics on the Astaria platform are shaped by the fine-tuned parameters defined by strategists, offering flexibility and precision in the lending process. Here's a quick overview of these parameters:

- __Loan Amount__: The loan amount, denominated in the ERC20 token used by the Vault.
- __Duration__: The loan duration in seconds.
- __Interest Rate__: The interest rate of the loan. All rates on the Astaria protocol are in simple interest and non-compounding.
- __Maximum Potential Debt__: This is the highest possible debt that can be accrued against an NFT considering all existing loans. It's a vital factor when strategizing multiple loans against the same collateral.
- __Liquidation Initial Ask__: The requested starting price of the Dutch auction if the collateral is sent to liquidation. Note that the initial auction price is set by the most senior lien in the lien stack.

These mechanics contribute to the versatility of Astaria's lending platform, allowing users to have diverse and strategic engagement with NFTs. For more in-depth information about these mechanics and how they function within the larger Astaria ecosystem, we encourage you to visit Astaria's loan term [documentation](https://docs.astaria.xyz/docs/protocol-mechanics/loanterms). 

## Upshot’s Vault Management Strategy 
At Upshot, our lending strategy is designed to minimize risk for the lender while maximizing value for the borrower. To accomplish this, we leverage Upshot's industry-leading appraisals, recovery rate models, default probability estimates, and our proprietary risk management framework. This ensemble of models and analyses ensures that our lending strategies provide fair, accurate terms, and a healthy yield, all while mitigating the risk exposure for our liquidity providers and ourselves.

From selecting high-quality NFT collections to considering future collateral value when determining loan amounts, each element of our strategy is tailored to provide optimal benefits for all stakeholders. Borrowers can take advantage of our flexible lending process where our quant team fetches all the loan terms, which are then fed into the Astaria SDK. This system allows us to offer borrowers the most current and relevant lending terms, frequently updated every 30 minutes, and lenders the opportunity to stake in our vault. 

We have also added a "kill-switch" feature that quickly responds to significant market events, further ensuring the protection of our liquidity providers. As we embark on this journey with Astaria, we remain committed to continuously improving and refining our lending strategies, based on market trends and user feedback

### Upshot’s Vault 
Upshot's initial offering will feature one unified vault, presenting several advantages:

- __Simplicity__: A single NFT lending vault simplifies management and operations, making it easier for users to understand the lending process.
- __Greater liquidity__: Consolidating NFTs from various owners increases overall market liquidity, facilitating borrower access and enabling lenders to earn interest.
- __Reduced risk__: Pooling NFTs from multiple owners spreads default risk across a broader pool of borrowers, reducing loss risk for individual lenders in case of a default.

This setup will be reviewed and potentially revised based on user feedback and demand, with plans to launch additional vaults over time to cater to varied risk profiles and lending strategies.

### Supported Collections (As of May 25, 2023) 
As of the initial launch, Upshot will support the following collections as part of our initial vault: 

- Azuki
- BAYC
- Beanz Official
- Chromie Squiggles
- CloneX
- CryptoDickbutts
- Doodles
- MAYC
- Milady
- Moonbirds
- Pudgy Penguins

We look forward to expanding our collection and vault offerings in the coming months.

### Upshot’s Methodology 
Upshot’s strategy embraces "conservative NFT lending," with terms designed to minimize lender risk while still providing value to the borrower. Core elements of our strategy include:

- __Collateral__: Borrowers provide an NFT as collateral for the loan, selected from high-quality collections with a history of stable or appreciating value.
- __Loan amount__: The amount is a function of the future collateral value, less a margin for forecasting uncertainty, offering adequate protection to the lender in case of default.
- __Loan duration__: The duration is based on the highest future recovery value over a 30-day time horizon, ensuring maximum recovery value in the event of a default.
- __Interest rate__: The rate compensates the lender for the risk involved in lending the NFTs, such as default risk and illiquidity risk.
- __Leverage__: Our initial strategy does not permit second or third lien loans.

Please note that this design is flexible, and adjustments will be made based on feedback regarding parameters such as loan amount and interest rate. 

### Our Risk Mitigation Framework
In our commitment to maximize value and mitigate risk for Astaria Vault participants, Upshot utilizes a sophisticated Portfolio Optimization framework, deeply rooted in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). MPT emphasizes the power of diversification, aiming to create an optimal asset allocation with superior risk-adjusted returns through careful optimization strategies.

Upshot's approach to portfolio optimization is methodical and data-driven. We begin with a collection's time-series data, utilizing daily floor prices and our in-house generated appraisals to construct robust time series. From these data points, we calculate risk and return approximations, employing different modeling methods such as mean, exponentially weighted average, or machine learning-based algorithms like Auto-regressors and GARCH.

After determining return and risk approximations, we move to portfolio selection. We employ optimization solvers to determine collection weights, thereby constructing a portfolio that meets investors' objectives within set constraints. Upon establishing collection weights, we then proceed with our capital allocation strategy.

Recognizing the limitations of traditional MPT techniques, particularly in the dynamic and sometimes unpredictable NFT market, we've integrated alternative portfolio construction methods. These include minimum spanning tree (MST) and centrality-based methods from Graph Theory, which offer a more nuanced approach to diversification and have shown promising results in terms of out-of-sample performance. This innovative strategy not only ensures that our portfolio is robust against market fluctuations, but it is also highly scalable.

## Conclusion 
This partnership between Upshot and Astaria presents a promising new horizon NFT financialization. To learn more about Upshot and our strategic approach, visit our [website](https://upshot.xyz/). For a closer look at how we're utilizing our robust machine learning capabilities with Astaria's on-chain NFT lending platform, check out our [Astaria-Upshot vault](https://astaria.xyz/lend/vaults/0xe5149d099b992e3dc897f3f4c88824eac2a6a59d). If you're interested in diving deeper into Astaria's protocol or need help navigating the platform, you can find comprehensive guides and helpful details in Astaria's [documentation](https://docs.astaria.xyz/). 

We invite you to embark on this journey with us as we redefine the boundaries of ownership in the world of NFTs. This partnership with Astaria allows individuals to navigate an expansive range of unique use cases for their jpegs, unlocking unprecedented ways of engaging with NFTs. Together, we are transforming the concept of asset ownership, breaking down barriers and bridging the gap between the world of DeFi and NFTs. Join us in this exciting new chapter as we unlock the potential of NFTs like never before by visiting our [vault](https://astaria.xyz/lend/vaults/0xe5149d099b992e3dc897f3f4c88824eac2a6a59d).

Astaria has partnered with Upshot bringing Upshot lending strategies to their platform.

Upshot Unveils Strategic Partnership with Astaria as Inaugural Vault Strategist

About Upshot

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